Market Overview

Recap

  • Large-cap equities continued to outperform their smaller peers in the 3rd quarter, with the S&P 500 posting gains of 0.58%, while the S&P Midcap 400 and S&P Small Cap 600 posted losses of -1.76% and -2.85% respectively;

  • Large-cap growth stocks showed the highest returns, gaining 1.87% compared to the S&P 500 Value Index which returned - 0.85%;

  • The opposite is true about small-cap stock, as meme stock mania continued to propel small-cap value names;

  • There was no announcement of the tapering of asset purchases during the Fed's September meeting; however, the market's expectation is for an announcement in November;

  • The introduction of 2024 policy rate forecast, and a higher median projection for the 2023 policy rate by the FOMC, has led interest rates to selloff since the September FOMC meeting.

Outlook

  • A strong outlook for economic growth in the 4th quarter leads us to believe that equities will continue to outperform fixed income during the final quarter of the year, maintaining our slight overweight in balanced portfolios;

  • As new variants emerge, the biggest risk to our view remains COVID-19 and the rate of progress to vaccinate the global population;

  • Our portfolio retains a short duration of roughly 8% below the index, as our analysis foresees a steeper yield curve with long term interest rates rising;

  • Considering the robust levels of both spot growth/inflation and future expectations, we believe that there is an asymmetric risk to rates going higher;

  • Averaging approximately a 10% overweight position in credit across fixed income portfolios, our analysis suggests that credit's room to outperform agency mortgage-backed securities has narrowed, and will begin to allocate more to this sector going forward.

Energy Prices Rally

Energy Prices Rally - CIM

 

More Compensation to Hold Long Duration Bonds

More Compensation to Hold Long Duration Bonds

 

First Monthly Loss for S&P 500 Since January

First Monthly Loss for S&P 500 Since January

 

 

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